Kurdistan Bloggers Union

Since the beginning of the war, Turkey repeats constantly that it wouldn't accept any kind of independant or autonominous Kurdish political entity, that it won't accept any kind of discrimination for Turkmen in Iraqi Kurdistan, etc. Or, it threatens to... what ? That is the question, precisely : what could do Turkey to prevent a Kurdish state (if it happens) ?

Everybody, of course, thinks of a military invasion : Turkish army entering by force in Northern-Iraq, occupying the Kurdish region, and... and what ? Will it stay in Northern-Iraq, as another occupied power, and cooperate friendly with the American army in the same effort to build a democratical and unified state ? hum... could you imagine Turkey building a democracy out of its own borders ? So it would be a hard occupation, like in Cyprus, with a minority of Turkmen ruling a large Kurdish area ? I am sure that most Turkmen would not be so stupid to accept a such deal... So it could only destroyed the Kurdish forces, and give back Kurdistan to the central government in Bagdad. But in that case, if Turks abandon all control on Kurdistan, they probably have to invade it each year, as in 90s against the PKK....

More seriously, I wonder if Turks shout and threaten that they'll never accept a Kurdish state even in Southern-America, just because they know that they could not prevent it without great dammages for Turkey itself. I wonder if the more they complain the more it means that they could not do anything. Because they know that a military intervention in Iraq would be a black scenario for Turkey, more than for Kurds.

In a such violent action, Turkey has much to lose and a few to gain.

Firstly, if Turkey enters in Iraq and starts a new war, it will lose probably all its chances to become a EU member. And Turks want badly to become European, especially economical and trade circles, that are already furious because of its comedy of Law adultery... Secondly, Turkey is in an very very bad economical situation, like a puppet in the hands of the International Monetary Fund, and breaking all hopes to enter in EU could make a little Black Thirsday in this country... So the government that could decide to make war in Iraq should face a strong opposition from its own buisenessmen and political opposition...

But each Turk has been educated as a potential war-winner, as the greatest race in the world, as a Gengis Xan's son, etc... so they could decide to make war, all the same.

The problem is that the myth of an invincible Turkish army, derives from the War of Independance, when Ataturk was victorious agaisnt foreign invaders. Since that time, the Turkish strategy is based mainly on an attitude of defence, against external and unseeing ennemies acting inside the country... I mean that they use to fight in their own state, more like jandarma than like real soldiers sent to a foreign country where nobody talks Turkish, and without any safe communications, roads, infrastructures, etc... Even when Turkish batalions invaded Nothern-Iraq to eliminate the PKK, they did not go very far out of their border... And even in Turkey, army has been never able to oppress definitively the Kurdish rebellion... Though it had done everything for that : burning villages, displacing or murdering civilian people, starving the country, etc... All the same, guerilla is still a problem in South-East, and this time US or NU could not tolerate a second Kurdish genocide in Iraq, just because if you make a genocide against your own citizens inside your own country (as Saddam or Turkey had done in 80s and 90s), it is only an internal political problem. If you do it out of your political borders, you could be bombed like in Serbia. This is a question of savoir-vivre...

So the Turkish army could not burn so easily 4000 Kurdish villages and displacing millions of Kurds... But it could have to face a strong resistance from Kurds (and other Iraqis I guess). And a strong hostility from neighbours countries. And bringing war to Iraqi Kurdistan, will oblige it to face hard reprisals in its own country, like a boomerang effect : borders are not open only in one direction... And a such intervention could make enter Kurdish guerilla as terrorist groups inside Turkey... Öcalan's tactic was ever to struggle in the South-East only, never in Turkish regions (probably because he was afraid to be expelled from Syria). So that only Kurds suffered because of guerilla, Turks did not realize what is war in their own city, their own region. In that case, they would do.

Then a Turkish victory is not certain, not at all. And if Turkey is defeated, it would make a general collapse in this state. Since its fundation, its nationalism has been built on the legend of a victorious and proud army, and the prestige of Turkish soldiers is still very great in the country. Thus, army has always had a great impact on policy and politicians (not for the best, btw...). A shameful defeat could put an end to this balance of forces.

So in this black scenario, after an unsuccessful invasion, Turkey could have lost a EU membership, and gain a bad, long and bloody occupation in a foreign country or a piteous retreat...

So, for all these reasons, and because I know that Turkish military staff is often barbarous but not stupid (they are even clever Barbarians), I am not sure, not at all, that Turkey has the real intention to invade Iraqi Kurdistan, whatever happens.